“Immigration has got to come down… we will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.” Not the words of Nigel Farage, but of Sir Keir Starmer – just weeks before he made it to Downing Street.
So, eight months into a new Government, with a radical redrawing of the political map in the US and Europe, how is UK border control going, what got us to this point, and what help are British businesses getting from Labour to “hire Brits first”?
A look at the numbers
Let’s start with the statistics. On a global scale, migration continues to rise, in line with the pattern of recent decades. The majority of international migrants live in Europe and North America. 2024 estimates agreed there were about 304 million international migrants worldwide, representing about 3.7% of the global population, double the level of 1990. By 2050, the figure is expected to exceed 400 million.
The UK has already recorded its highest ever migration levels, with the ONS reporting a higher-than-expected figure to June – but the lag in statistical reporting does not fully capture what has happened to date on this Government’s watch, which is open to some debate.
Around the time of Summer 2024’s UK riots, there was much loose talk of the UK taking a disproportionate share of destitute migrants and those claiming asylum, but the figures do not bear that out. Yes, the shocking figures of dangerous, illegal small boat crossings keep coming. But in terms of actual numbers, Germany has taken four times as many.
How did we get here?
Obviously, global change and international migration patterns have a lot to do with it. UK specific policy has also played its part, and that is where the sharper political angles appear. The Conservative Government elected in 2019 promised to use Brexit to “take back control of our borders”. It was an electorally popular promise that did not deliver; it is increasingly clear that it achieved the reverse.
It included, at first, a relaxation of the Points Based System that lowered thresholds, abandoned the last remnants of quotas and did away with the (largely discredited) resident labour market test. Yet, once transitional provisions had ended, EEA free movement and labour market access was at an end, too. The effect? Less EEA migration, and more from beyond Europe’s borders. How that has played in the public mind is interesting - see below.
“This happened by design, not accident”, says Starmer “Policies were reformed deliberately to liberalise immigration. Brexit was used for that purpose… to turn Britain into a one-nation experiment in open borders. Global Britain - remember that slogan… that is what they meant."
In panic, Rishi Sunak’s Government tried to regain control with a sharp about turn: a year ago, immigration related fees were hiked and in April 2024, salary thresholds for sponsorship sharply increased and access for some dependents in healthcare and student sectors blocked. An election was coming; blame the past failures on Boris, and now see the difference, went the argument. Businesses had to absorb higher costs and rethink some hiring decisions; individuals such as academics at high skill but lower pay levels had their family lives disrupted. The derided Rwanda scheme for unlawful entrants was mired in legal challenge and achieved nothing. As a political strategy, it didn’t work.
In July 2024, Starmer’s new Government took power and had its own immigration promises to deliver on.
Government action, eight months on
"Net migration quadrupled in the past five years and we have been clear that we will get the numbers down and restore order to our broken immigration system as part of our Plan for Change."
Seema Malhotra, Minister for Migration and Citizenship
Incoming Home Secretary Yvette Cooper had promised “grip, not gimmicks”. What has been done, besides scrapping the failed Rwanda scheme? What does that mean for business and employers, given the commitment to “control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first”?
- The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill 2025 is progressing through Parliament, heralding a “framework of new, enhanced powers and offences” to detect and tackle immigration crime and integrate the new Border Security Command.
- In line with the Plan for Change, a major boost to (historically weak and underfunded) enforcement operations. In January 2025, a “blitz” on illegal working, seen as a major contributor to immigration crime, saw almost a thousand employer’s premises raided. The emphasis was on restaurants, nail bars and takeaways but we have seen larger, regulated businesses targeted too – and not always in a fair or proportionate way.
- The Government claims that nearly 19,000 foreign criminals and people with no right to be in the UK have been lawfully removed since it took office, the highest for 5 years.
- Holding the line on increased thresholds for salaries for sponsored workers.
- Increasing immigration fees, including for Certificates of Sponsorship, to encourage employers to look for resident staff by loading costs onto the immigration process.
- Outline proposals for encouraging entrepreneurship through stand-alone visas for those with innovative ideas that can help with the elusive Government goal of economic “growth” – but as yet, little detail.
The experience for most businesses is that “help” so far has been more stick than carrot. A look at public opinion shifts is informative at this point.
Immigration, politics and the public mood
In the US, Donald Trump was straight onto the immigration agenda when resuming office and lost little time in signing orders that dramatically and, to the horror of liberal America, radically and irreversibly change the lives of millions of migrants. Cheered and supported by some in his Government, the right-wing AfD with its anti-immigration platform has just become Germany’s main opposition group, having only narrowly failed weeks ago to upend the post-war German consensus on asylum. In France, in the Netherlands, and elsewhere across Europe a similar pattern emerges. Compassion fatigue has clearly set in in relation to displaced Ukrainians.
Here in Britain, the Government feels the same fear as the traditional European parties: look tough, or see power shift to the extremes.
A YouGov poll in January 2025 showed that 71% think too many people are arriving in the UK. That is the highest percentage since records began. “Sir Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper would do well to regard this poll as another red flag,” warned Migration Watch UK chairman Alp Mehmet. He probably need not worry about that.
A deeper look into the polling is informative, too. Public unhappiness is not focused, as one expert noted, so much about the numbers arriving as how they arrived and why. There is little objection to facilitating the legal migration of the highly skilled and entrepreneurial who can drive economic growth. There is much less acceptance that such people can be amongst the illegal entrants who land on our shores after dangerous, criminally enabled, journeys.
What now, and what next?
Acting tough is all very well, but if you must wield the stick, be careful how. We have recently advised responsible, profitable employers with significant businesses and reputations that are unarguably to the benefit of the UK economy who have been hit by stark, confusing Home Office communications about investigations. They have very short timeframes to prove they have done nothing wrong. Clarity and consistency are not always where it should be. Has the sudden upscaling of enforcement been accompanied by the appropriate level of training and resource?
Even Trump has made positive comments about enabling highly skilled and entrepreneurial migration to the US. Despite comments from the Chancellor around the time of the Autumn Budget, there is still relatively little detail on what the UK plans to do in this overlooked area even as we hear the arguments for balance in all things to enable growth. It is time for the carrot, too.
For now, the best option for business is to take stock of the direction of immigration policy, adapt to the new realties, and argue for a fair and realistic measures that go with the grain but do not disadvantage us in a competitive, uncertain world:
- Fees are going up. Thirty years ago, all immigration applications were free. Today, it is expensive: a complex system needs funding. Migration has to be tested against its cost effectiveness as a hiring option.
- Sponsored salary thresholds are staying up and may rise further. Over the next few years, transitional provisions will disappear. It will become increasingly difficult to sponsor lower and mid-range roles.
- Illegal working – which includes employment that started lawfully but is no longer covered by immigration conditions – is under the spotlight. Employers, and especially those with sponsor licences, should review their right to work policies and processes to balance immigration and employment law compliance and take advice if in any doubt.
- Watch what the Government does on immigration and entrepreneurship – but do not expect anything radical.
Please contact our Business Immigration team if you require further guidance or assistance.
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