Matthew Davies, Partner and Head of Business Immigration at Wright Hassall, rounds up what is being promised – and what might be delivered.
“THE IMMIGRATION ELECTION” is the headline and dominant theme of Reform UK’s election leaflet. It is also high on the agenda of the main parties - after all, it ranks as a big issue for the electorate. No wonder it provoked stinging exchanges at the Prime Ministerial TV debate this week.
But wasn’t the last General Election the Immigration Election? The 2019 one, where Reform UK’s Brexit Party forerunner agreed a pact with the Conservatives to “get Brexit Done”, and so “take back control of our borders” by ending EEA free movement and EU influence over our immigration policy? Apparently not. Legal and illegal migration soared to the highest levels ever recorded since Brexit. There is consensus amongst the political parties that it is “too high” – even historically pro-immigration Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey says so. They all say they will reduce it. “Read my lips... immigration will come down under Labour” says Sir Keir Starmer. On the other hand, “only the Conservatives can be trusted to manage that” argues Rishi Sunak.
Business is already taken aback by the effect of the salary threshold caps, and other restrictions in the Points Based System that have frustrated recruitment of the skilled employees they need in multiple areas. The Rwanda scheme looks like a harsh and unworkable pattern of things to come. Backlogs across many areas of the under-funded, overwhelmed Home Office system are a constant.
What next? If elected:
The Conservatives will press on with the Rwanda scheme, promise better focus on organised criminality and commit to a 6-month turnaround for asylum claims. There will be some cost to that. In business immigration, minimum salary thresholds will be pushed up further and pegged to inflation, health surcharge payments will be ramped up again and there will be a cap on numbers of Skilled Worker and other work-related visas.
But we had caps before. It was the Conservatives who, in the wake of Brexit, decided caps were unworkable and also abandoned the resident labour market test as part of the “new” economic migration system (a cut and paste on the old one) in 2020-21.
Also, this would have to be paid for by a Government aiming for tax cuts, from a party whose track record does not speak to putting investment in the legal immigration system or tackling criminality through well-funded counter- intelligence operations.
Labour dismisses the Rwanda scheme as a gimmick that would take 300 years to clear the current backlog, and would scrap it. The creation of a Border Security Command with counter terrorism powers and a new well-staffed returns unit will require investment. Targeted upskilling of the resident workforce to reduce the need for skilled migration has long been a theme of Government and the Immigration Skills Charge has supposedly been there to pay for it – but there is not much detail on how that would be achieved, and still less on yet another overhaul of the Points Based System – that was Labour’s legacy answer to the immigration issue in the – yes – 2005 General election under Tony Blair. The old ones are the best, after all.
Reform UK would simply back out of the ECHR to reject enforcement of some international humanitarian obligations and “freeze non-essential migration” – but is that freeze not what successive Governments have claimed to be doing anyway? What is non-essential, and how is it frozen?
Liberal Democrats, Greens and others go along with the general theme of the main parties, but are gentler in the messaging and say relatively little. Sir Ed Davey acknowledges that immigration generally is “too high” and asks the question as to how to bring it down – but there are only vague answers in the Liberal Democrat Manifesto. The Greens draw the connection between climate emergency and immigration, pointing out that people are displaced from parts of the world that are becoming “unliveable”.
The SNP’s decade-long grip on Scottish politics may be challenged in this election, which will play in the overall result, but there is an interesting twist: historically, Scotland has been affected more by emigration than immigration, and demographic projections point to labour shortages. John Swinney says he wants to work with an incoming Labour government to increase immigration to Scotland, and attacks Labour’s restrictionist stance.
Conclusion
What does it add up to? Based on watching this debate for years: not very much for business to plan for. There is not the money to invest in a creaking system or capacity to reverse compelling geo-political trends that drive the movement of people in a globally interconnected world where conflicts, the environment and markets influence all things. The only certainty is: it will not get easier.
Soundbite Central: the politicians on immigration
"Numbers are too high, it's as simple as that. And I want to bring them down." “I don’t want to surrender our borders… making us a soft touch of Europe when it comes to illegal migration.” - Rishi Sunak, Conservative Prime Minister
“A Labour government would allow open-door immigration, making the UK a magnet for illegal migrants.” - James Cleverly, Conservative Home Secretary
“Read my lips – I will bring immigration numbers down. If you trust me with the keys to No. 10, I will make you this promise: I will control our borders and make sure British businesses are helped to hire Brits first.” - Sir Keir Starmer, Labour Leader
“Since we left the EU, immigration has more than doubled, completely against what the Conservatives and the Brexiteers promised. So, the question is, how do you bring it down?” - Sir Ed Davey, Liberal Democrats Leader
“The days of employing cheap labour are finished.” - Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader
“Gutless economic self-harm.” - Scottish SNP Health Secretary Neil Gray on Labour’s immigration policy
"The Labour Party has taken a very, very hostile attitude towards migration and we'd have to see how that would work out in practice." - John Swinney, SNP Scottish First Minister
The information provided in this article is provided for general information purposes only, and does not provide definitive advice. It does not amount to legal or other professional advice and so you should not rely on any information contained here as if it were such advice.
Wright Hassall does not accept any responsibility for any loss which may arise from reliance on any information published here. Definitive advice can only be given with full knowledge of all relevant facts. If you need such advice please contact a member of our professional staff.
The information published across our Knowledge Base is correct at the time of going to press.
