We have known for months that it was coming; after all, Labour committed in its pre-General election manifesto to address a situation perceived by some to be out of control. The White Paper was in the parliamentary timetable long before Reform UK’s poll surge in the local elections became a reality.
Two things stand out. First, there is a long, dizzying list of UK Prime Ministers promising to be tough on immigration, and then implementing changes that have not materially changed the overall picture of the last 25 years: a huge increase in net migration compared to anything that has gone before, most of it legal.
Second, there is a natural surprise at a Labour PM using such bold, forceful and untypical language on the issue: an “island of strangers”, indeed?
A White Paper entitled Restoring control over the immigration system immediately asserts that the present system is out of control and implies imminent measures that will change all that and deliver a new landscape of immigration control. In fact, neither of those things may be true. Most – but not all - businesses that depend on lawful migration will still be able to access enough of it, but it will be tougher and more expensive for some. Which is exactly what the Government intends – delivering on a manifesto promise and blunting the appeal of a new challenger party to its core support base.
There is much crucial detail to be worked through but here are the headlines…
Sponsorship: skills thresholds to rise (back to where they were pre-Brexit)
The skill level for points based sponsored skilled workers will go back to RQF 6 and above for new applicants. Salary thresholds will rise. Some 180 occupations will be removed from the eligible list. There will be transitional arrangements for those who are already in the sponsored Skilled Worker route just as there are – still – for the major threshold increases to salaries brought in by the last Government, just over a year ago.
It is worth remembering that it was only in 2020-21 that the bar was lowered, in part due to the politics of the very Brexit deal that Boris Johnson promised would “take back control of our borders”, following which net migration soared again.
Exact timings will be announced but this is, as at now, a White Paper – nothing is changing overnight.
Built in concessions for “salary list” shortage skills
Occupations with recognised long-term shortages that qualify at skills requirements RQF 3-5 will continue to be accessible for a time limited period under a “Temporary Shortage List”. The Immigration Salary List as we know it is to be abolished despite only being around for twelve months, in succession to the shortage occupation list…
More fee increases
Few remember that 25 years ago, all immigration applications were free. Today they are loaded with thousands of pounds of Government fees and surcharges, many of them non-refundable and which must be paid by employing sponsors, not migrants themselves. There were large increases in early 2024. Now, the Immigration Skills Charge will increase to £1,320 per year; but that is only in line with inflation since it was first introduced.
It is not just about immigration – it is a skills paper!
The Prime Minister was keen to make this point. A new Labour Market Evidence Group (LMEG) will be established to make decisions about the state of the labour market and look at different policies. There will be new requirements for key sectors where high levels of recruitment from abroad will be monitored. There will be a link to skills training to counter the argument that employers “just can’t get the staff” when the evidence may point to a reluctance to invest in training them, or the wrong programmes offered by schools and UK training bodies.
High talent routes and labour market access for skilled refugees
Since the effective abolition of the Investor route (used by some to buy a “Golden visa” ticket to the UK that Government concluded was too often to the UK’s detriment) standalone visas for investment, employment and self-employment, have been underdeveloped. Proposals include increasing the number of people on very high talent routes and allowing a limited pool of refugees to apply for employment through skilled worker routes.
Graduate post-study visas: shorter duration
Increased post-pandemic competition for graduate jobs meant that sponsor-free access to the labour market for predominately well-off migrants was reducing opportunities for less advantaged UK national graduates. A review of the graduate route last year did not result in its removal, as had been speculated; now its duration is to be reduced from 2 years to 18 months; not quite the dramatic snatching away of opportunity for overseas graduates from UK universities that has been presented. Again, it is important to note that this will only apply at a future point for new category entrants, not those who already hold Graduate visas.
The care sector
The reality is that too many unscrupulous providers, supported by a whole industry of shadowy agents using questionable recruitment methods and documentary evidence of qualifications, have undermined trust in the special provision for relatively low-paid care workers to be sponsored. This is hard indeed on the responsible care homes and care providers that also rely heavily on migrant staff with caring and nursing skills. The proposal is to close – over time - the Health and Social Care visa route to new applications from abroad. There will be a transition period until 2028, where visa extensions and in-country switching for those already in country will be permitted. There is a proposal to make it easier for workers to change employers while on a Skilled Worker visa to give workers more control and reduce exploitation. That this will have a significant impact is not in doubt; but the government wants that, and to drive up wages and employee conditions in the sector whilst reducing abuse.
English language requirement
Proposals will increase the language threshold for Skilled Workers from B1 to B2 (Independent User) levels; there will be a new base-level English language requirement for all adult dependants of workers and students, initially level A1 (Basic User), and to demonstrate progression to level A2 (Basic User) for any visa extension, and B2 (Independent User) for settlement.
Existing language requirements for settlement increase across a majority of immigration routes from B1 to B2 (Independent User).
Ten years to settlement? Not for all
One of the more striking proposals is to increase settlement and citizenship rules by doubling the Points-Based System derived qualifying period for settlement (indefinite leave to remain, also often referred to – inaccurately – as “Permanent Residence”) from five to ten years. 25 years ago, it was just four years.
This needs to be caveated; there is a counterbalancing opportunity to reduce the qualifying period to settlement and citizenship based on contributions to the UK economy and society akin to a sliding scale/ earned settlement, the detail of which will be looked at later this year.
Settlement for non-UK dependants of British citizens will remain unchanged at five years.
Reflections and a reminder – it is not happening tomorrow
The Government will not say so, of course, but it will be quietly pleased at the outrage in the liberal media at what is a mixed and not entirely restrictive package of proposals. It cannot be perceived as soft on the issue – but it also wants to be credible in four years’ time. So, there were Government bench smiles and derisive back bench laughter at Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp’s claim in the Commons that the Conservatives were taking a "new approach to immigration". Voters remember what governing parties say, do, and fail to deliver on. This Government can live with accusations of not going far enough from this opposition.
This is all likely to take some time. A White Paper is not law; it is a list of proposals, which need to become a Bill, and then go through parliamentary process to become law. That said, there is broad consensus on the need for a firmer grip; and this Government has a big majority. It is coming, but it will not change everything for most sectors. Higher skilled migration is here to stay.
As the detail is worked through in the weeks ahead, we will follow developments; but nothing is changing quite yet. When it does, it will be crucial to know where the real impacts fall and plan for them.
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The information published across our Knowledge Base is correct at the time of going to press.
